I started playing Texas Hold’em almost a year and a half ago now. Like many new players my approach to the game back then was much different than my approach now. If you are familiar with the “5 levels of thinking” of Texas Hold’em I used to play with only the first one. I certainly never considered things like my position at the table, the blinds, my stack, the pot odds, etc. My plan was to look at my 2 pocket cards and try to guess what I could hit on the flop, the turn, and on the river.
Obviously my playing was very bad back then. In fact as I think about it now I realize that my winnings usually were just because I hit a straight, a flush, or something nuts on “Fifth-Street”. In short, many players would say I was winning just because of my luck. If you’ve ever played online poker, especially in low-medium levels, I am sure that you have often been faced with “all in situations” (even in the earliest phases of a tournament or SnG) where the luck prevails over the skill.
After my first studies to improve my skills in Texas Hold’em, I decided to make a test: I asked 4 of my friends -who usually played online poker- to join the same tournament for one week, and then I would study all of the hand histories. In 57% (16 out of 28) of the tournaments, my friends were eliminated when they went all in when they were the underdog often playing marginal hands with no help on the board. Usually they simply were making the wrong decision.
From this tiny study I developed a problem that I call “the Cowboys’ problem”, and in this article I want make you reflect on it.
Let’s say you’re playing a medium-level tournament online where the top 20 finishers get paid and there are only 25 players left. You have been doing well so far and you currently are 2nd in chips and you and the chip leader are sitting at the same table. You find yourself in a hand with the chip leader but you have not yet had enough time to mark him as “tight”, “aggressive”, “maniac” etc. Playing on the button position, you get K-K, but the chip leader, who’s acting on the cut-off, goes all in.
What’s the RIGHT move here? Let’s consider a few things:
- If you call and you win, you double up your chips becoming the uncontested chip leader.
- If you call and you lose, you are eliminated from the tournament.
- Knowing that the “Cowboys” win almost 70% of the time against a random starting hand, you could call easily.
- You’re an underdog only against the 6 possible combinations of Aces, which represent less than the 0.5% of the 1386 combinations of starting hands.
- If he’s holding an A-x, you can guess that you would win almost 66% of time; while holding a lower pair he’s going to lose the 81% of the time.
I would say that most Texas hold’em players would call this hand instantly BUT passing the cowboys in this situation is surely the right way to play. Why is important be able to fold the second best starting hand? It is because the best way to win at Texas hold’em is by reducing the amount of luck and “fate” that is involved so you can let your skills prevail over your opponent’s.
When you start to play Texas Hold’em using this kind of thinking it will help you reduce the “luck factor” in the game. Once you are able to do that then improving your skills by reading and studying this game, will make you a better poker player.
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Well, I guess this is a little bit too obvious fold in most cases.
Anyway, it also depends on the payout structure. If for example all the 20 places were paid equally, e.g. a tournament ticket from a satellite, then it’s an instant fold (well, you shouldn’t even be 2nd largest stack in such case, tbh). However if it was more like the 1st place gets 50% of the prize pool while 20th place merely gets its buyin back, then well, I’d think about calling here (not saying that I would, but still). Anyway, my point is that it’s not about percentage to win any given single hand, it’s all about ICM in the tournaments.
so you’d think to call without considering the starting hands that your opponent may have?
are you sure that the second best starting hand “is a little bit too obvious fold in most cases”?
in a satellite is istant fold, i surely agree with you; cause you don’t care about your final position, you just care about the ticket.
well, i think playing the best poker you can needs considering everything around you, the possible hands that a player may have is one of that things!
Well, if I know nothing about the opponent, there is no way I can assume he only shoves AA from the CO. Anyway, I agree with you it would be very difficult to make a call here. Which brings us to “a little bit too obvious fold in most cases”
Also, if I may add one more important thing to consider, this situation hugely depends on stack sizes vs blinds. If the tournament was some kind of turbo where average M at this level usually is ~= 5, or so, I would call and clap my hands! However, if we’re all relatively deep stacked, then fold.. Anyway, there’re many factors not mentioned in your original post, so I may have come to the “obvious fold” too quickly
yes i didnt mention some factors in the original post, cause i thought that not specifing how was the tournament structure would have been interpretated as a “normal tournament”, with blinds every 15 minutes and at least 100 players.
Interesting man!!!
Nice article!
To be honest, theres no way i am ever folding K-K here in the situation you describe.
At such a late stage in the mtt, and chipleader raising silly from the C/O its a snap call.
I understand what you are saying but its for a different situation than this.
E.G , in any SNG/MTT, early in the game, when the blinds are small. Then by all means fold K-K here, cause you dont win nothing in the 1st hour of any game.
But at such a stage of a mtt as you describe, you cant be fearful of bad luck, you must play to win not just to cash.
Now if UTG raised and the C/O reraised all in, then obv GTFO.
But in this situation, dont you dare fold K-K here. If he flips A-A so be it, thats bad luck.
I understand what you are saying, but luck is a huge part of the game, and you cant be scared of it.
you can kill the luck here, folding the KK in a pot where you have to put your whole stack, after you put just the ante… if he flips AA its bad luck, if you wait for other hands where you can playing using your skills, is better.
I think you have to think deeper…
It is more complicated in my opinion and I have a post to help you understand!
http://poker-scholarship.com/2009/09/think-on-another-level/
looooool
Hahaha
jimsjoy, that would be true if Hero was an average stack or less. With the 2nd largest stack, however, there’s no need to put it all on such a weird hand.
This is a clear opportunity to take the large portion of the leader’s stack and build an almost insurmountable stack so you can take down the tournament. He wouldn’t be pushing like that with Pocket Aces. He probably has JJ or QQ, or maybe AK or AQ. Okay, that’s maybe a 50% chance he has an Ace then, but you’re a clear favourite. If you fold KK to all-in raises you’re letting yourself be bullied around and I doubt you would even end of fourt or fifth in the tournament. Far better to go for first place or bust in my opinion
What you don’t seem to be considering Ady is that you are putting your entire tournament on the line with KK when you have the 2nd highest chip stack. You are in a position to fold K’s whereas – say you were short stacked, it would be an automatic call. You never want to put your tourney on the line like that – especially when you aren’t even in the money yet. It is too much of a risk when you are in such a good position.
If the leader has say pocket 2′s & he manages to out-flop you (2KK comes on the flop) you are screwed. Not only are you out of the tournament but you are also now out of the money.
Ya – it looks like a great hand. But you have to consider the entire tournament at this point – not just the great hand you have. Consider that you are pre-flop & you have no way to gauge what the other player has or what could possibly come on the flop. There are too many variables to put your tournament on the line. You would be better off to fold & hold out to play a hand like this when you are in the money.
If 2KK comes on the flop you are laughing, as you would have four-of-a-kind to your opponents set
I know what you are saying, but if you fold premium hands at this stage, the blinds are likely to eventually force you into fourth or fifth place. You want first place or bust here